
IC No. 39 - Outlook of the outlooks 2025
Every year, we summarise the annual outlooks of selected financial institutions and give our clients and partners what they can't buy: Time. In our IC No. 39 – "Outlook of the Outlooks 2025," the topics shown graphically according to frequency and importance indicate the market consensus.
Every year, we summarise the annual outlooks of selected financial institutions and give our clients and partners what they can't buy: Time. In our IC No. 39 – "Outlook of the Outlooks 2025," the topics shown graphically according to frequency and importance indicate the market consensus.[1]
The vast majority of the analysed annual outlooks continue to expect strong development of the US economy (+2% real GDP growth). Financial institutions also expect higher tariffs, especially against China and the automotive industry. Opinions on the level and impact on growth and inflation, however, vary. The tendency is towards a generally moderate influence on growth and inflation prospects in the USA. Market participants also expect further declining interest rates (FED to 3.5%, ECB to 2.0%, SNB to 0.5%). This should support all asset classes in 2025 as well. These developments speak for the global stock market and long-term bonds. Differentiating the coverage of the stock market, a majority of market participants expect a shift toward the average. This means that small and medium-sized companies are expected to perform better than the dominant technology companies. Similarly, value stocks are expected to perform better than growth stocks. In a global comparison, Europe lags behind.
However, some market participants see potential surprises for Europe. On the one hand, significantly lower valuations speak for such a scenario (expected P/E ratio[2] of 14 for Europe vs. 22 for the USA), on the other hand, expectations in Europe are generally very low. What surprised us: No financial institution has foreseen the possibility of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. From our perspective, this scenario could lead to a significantly more positive development in Europe than currently assumed. Overall, an investment in Europe, however, goes against the trend. Additionally, many market participants in Europe prefer the British market. China continues to be viewed skeptically. The country is under additional pressure due to the unstable real estate sector and export tariffs. India, on the other hand, is better positioned for further growth. For Switzerland, a stable development is also predicted for 2025. Apart from Nestlé, Roche, and Novartis, there are attractive opportunities in small- and mid cap stocks. In the field of artificial intelligence, attractive opportunities are emerging beyond Nvidia. Regarding other asset classes, the real estate market is viewed positively (bottom reached?), and gold should shine in the portfolio. Overall, market participants are optimistic about the coming year.
We wish you and your family happy and relaxing holidays and peace for the world. Stay healthy, positive, and invested.
Dr. Patrick Cettier



[1] Analysis of reports from 50 institutions with a total of over 40 trillion in assets under management
[2] Price-to-earnings ratio