IC No. 45 - Outlook of the outlooks 2026
Every year, we summarise the annual outlooks of selected financial institutions and give our clients and partners what they can't buy: Time. In our IC No. 45 – «Outlook of the Outlooks 2026» the topics shown graphically according to frequency and importance indicate the market consensus.
Every year, we summarise the annual outlooks of selected financial institutions and give our clients and partners what they can't buy: Time. In our IC No. 45 – «Outlook of the Outlooks 2026» the topics shown graphically according to frequency and importance indicate the market consensus.[1]
The vast majority of the annual forecasts analysed continue to assume robust global economic growth. Declining inflation and monetary easing support this scenario. Investments in artificial intelligence will continue to dominate the market in 2026. We have set out our opinion on this in IC No. 44 – «Human Intelligence». However, rising investment also increases the risk of a bubble. Most of the institutions analysed prefer equities, as expected earnings growth remains strong. A breakthrough in the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia would certainly contribute to this. European stock markets and emerging markets are additionally characterised by low valuation levels.
Market participants have become accustomed to geopolitical tensions and fragmentation. We found the term «controlled uncertainty» to be apt: although regional conflicts are smouldering and the global economy is increasingly fragmenting into individual blocs, the markets remain robust. The energy transition remains a relevant issue, although its significance has declined considerably since the United States' U-turn. Further details can be found in IC No. 40 – «U-turn». The expansion of digital infrastructure is also continuing as a long-term trend. China is a cause for concern for most investors after the Chinese stock market delivered good returns over the last two years following a long dry spell. Of course, the spectre of stagflation looms large and hedging strategies are certainly being discussed. However, this is far from being the market consensus. Gold is still considered a safe haven and a sensible investment in 2026. However, following the spectacular price increases of recent years, the outlook is more moderate. More on this topic can be found in IC No. 43 – «Glitz & Glamour».
We wish you and your family a joyful and relaxing holiday season and a peaceful 2026. Stay healthy, positive and invested.
PC
[1] Evaluation of reports from 50 institutions with a total of over CHF 40 trillion in assets under management
IC No. 45 - Outlook of the outlooks 2026
